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Modeling demographic processes using agent-based approach and supercomputing technologies

The meeting of the seminar

«Supercomputer technologies

in science, education and industry»

Chairman of the organizing committee
Sadovnichy V.A. Sadovnichy V.A.
academician, rector of Lomonosov Moscow State University

Co-Chairs of the organizing committee
Voevodin Vl.V. Voevodin Vl.V.
Corr. RAS, Director of Research Computing Center of Moscow State University
Sokolov I.A. Sokolov I.A.
academician, dean of the faculty of Computational Mathematics and Cybernetics of Lomonosov Moscow State University
Tikhonravov A.V. Tikhonravov A.V.
D. in Physics and Mathematics, Professor, Research Computing Center of Moscow State University

Scientific Secretary of the seminar
  Hudoleeva A.A.
Research Computing Center of Moscow State University


The seminar was organized on the basis of the Scientific and Educational Center «Supercomputer Technologies». The reports cover all aspects of the use of supercomputers, parallel computing systems and distributed data processing methods for solving large computational problems. The seminar has a pronounced interdisciplinary nature, however, the various nuances of using supercomputer technologies are of interest to researchers from various fields.

The seminar is supported by the Moscow Center of Fundamental and Applied Mathematics.

Researchers, teachers, graduate and undergraduate students are invited.


16:20 (GMT +3)
  Bakhtizin A.R.
Doctor of Economics, Professor, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Director of the Central Economic and Mathematical Institute RAS
  Sushko E.D.
Ph.D., Central Economic and Mathematical Institute RAS
  Li E.L.
Ph.D., Head of the direction "Quality of Life and Demographic Potential" of the FASI «Eastern State Planning Center»
  Doroshenko T.A.
Ph.D., Head of the sector "Modeling of socio-demographic processes" of the FASI «Eastern State Planning Center»

Modeling demographic processes using agent-based approach and supercomputing technologies

One of the most promising tools for monitoring and forecasting social processes are agent-based models, widely spread abroad, the advantage of which is to consider the system under study at the level of its individual individuals, which increases the realism of these computer-based assessment methods. In Russia, this direction is also developing, although not so actively.

The paper will consider an agent-based model including 146 million agents. This tool was used to forecast the population of Russia and to estimate the impact on this indicator of some measures aimed at improving the demographic situation. For its technical implementation, we developed a technology to support agent-based modeling for supercomputers - STARS (Supercomputer Technology for Agent-oRiented Simulation), which makes it possible to efficiently scale models of this class up to 1 billion agents.

The experience of developing an agent-based demographic model of the Far East (FASI "Vostokgosplan") will also be presented. The goal of the development is to create a tool that is in demand in practice, which corresponds in its functions to the real powers of the authorities, and to make it possible to use it as a decision-making support system for strategic management of socio-economic development of the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District. As of the beginning of modeling, 8.2 million Far Eastern agents (1:1 scale) have been realized within the framework of the FEFD ADM. Agents at the microlevel live both individually and can be united into families, households, and at higher levels of aggregation represent the population of municipalities, constituent entities of the FEFD, as well as the entire macro-region. A Far Eastern agent lives a life cycle from birth to death, within which he/she moves along four private trajectories. The model contains more than 700 thousand units of information, more than 30 controllable parameters, and more than 50 output indicators.

The seminar session will be held in the form of a webinar on the Kontur.Tolk platform.

To participate in the webinar, please enter your data in the Yandex sheet:

A link to the conference in Contur.Tolk ( will be sent to your e-mail address.

Please note that for better quality of video communication, we recommend that you install the Contur.Tolk application in advance and access the conference through the application, NOT through a browser. Registration in Contour.Talk is NOT required to participate in the conference.

Applications (desktop and mobile) can be downloaded at

If you plan to participate in person and you do not have a pass to MSU, you must fill out the form no later than October 31 (Tuesday).

Please note that access will be allowed only through the southern entrance of the 2nd educational building of MSU and only during the seminar.