Seminar Leader:
Sadovnichy V.A., academician, rector of Lomonosov Moscow State University
Co-leaders of the seminar:
- Wilfand R.M., Doctor of Technical Sciences, Scientific Director of the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia
- Dobrolyubov S.A., Corr. RAS, Dean of the Faculty of Geography, Lomonosov Moscow State University
- Lykosov V.N., Corr. RAS, chief scientist Institute of Computational Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Head. Laboratory of Supercomputer Modeling of Natural and Climatic Processes of RCC MSU
- Stepanenko V.M., Doctor of Physics and Mathematics, Deputy Director of RCC MSU
Scientific Secretary of the seminar:
Mortikov E.V., Ph.D., Researcher of RCC MSU
PROGRAM
| R.Yu. Fadeev | Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, RAS Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology |
| M.A. Tolstykh | Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, RAS Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia |
| V.V. Shashkin | Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, RAS Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia |
| S.V. Travova | Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia |
| V.G. Mizyak | Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia |
| V.S. Rogutov | Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia |
| G.S. Goyman | Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, RAS Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia |
| K.A. Alipova | Hydrometeorological Centre of Russia |
| K.V. Ushakov | Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RAS Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, RAS |
| R.A. Ibraev | Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics, RAS Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, RAS |
COMPUTATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES FOR LONG-TERM FORECAST OF WEATHER ANOMALIES BASED ON THE PLAV MODEL
As one of the components of the system of long-term forecasting of averaged anomalies of macroscale characteristics of the atmosphere (temperature, surface pressure, etc.) for a period of two weeks to four months, the Hydrometeorological Center of Russia now uses the global atmospheric circulation model SLAV. It is expected that at the beginning of 2021 the development team will present an improved version of the SLAV 072L96 model for operational tests. Among the many changes, it should be noted the inclusion of an explicit reproduction of the dynamics of the stratosphere and some processes in the soil, improvements in the description of the characteristics of the underlying surface, and a number of subgrid-scale processes.
The characteristics of sea ice, the upper mixed ocean layer, the underlying surface and the thermal-moisture properties of the soil are important sources of long-term predictability of weather anomalies. Therefore, in parallel with the improvement of the SLAV model, the authors of the report are developing joint models of the atmosphere, ocean and sea ice SLAV-IVMIO-CICE and PLAV-NEMO-SI3. The preliminary results of retrospective forecasts made on the basis of the joint model PLAV-IVMIO-CICE demonstrate an increase in the success of forecasting the winter indices of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) in comparison with the forecast of PLAV. The use of joint models for the purposes of long-term forecasting is, in fact, a generally accepted approach in the group of WMO centers producing global long-term forecasts (Hydrometeorological Center of Russia is part of this group).
The purpose of the report is to tell about the problems and methodology of long-term forecasting, about the directions of development of the SLAV model and the promising developments of the authors of the report in the context of the problem of predicting weather anomalies with a lead time of two weeks to four months. Significant attention in the report will be given to the methodology for checking the developed numerical models, the features of their implementation and application on computers with massively parallel architecture.
The seminar will be held in the form of a webinar on the Zoom platform.
Zoom link:
https://us02web.zoom.us/j/86894095211?pwd=eGJNQmRNM3RTUVFWOUtZOHpLRTczQT09
Meeting ID: 868 9409 5211
Passcode: 137329
Instructions for installing and using the Zoom platform are available here:
https://support.zoom.us/hc/ru/articles/201362033-Начало-работы-на-ПК-и-Mac