173rd meeting of the seminar

«Mathematical modeling of geophysical processes: direct and inverse problems»

The seminar is devoted to the consideration of various aspects of mathematical modeling of physical processes in the atmosphere, hydrosphere and active layer of land, associated with solving problems arising in the study of the problems of climate change and the natural environment.

Seminar Organizing Committee

PROGRAM

Climate-soil-harvest simulation system for assessing agroclimatic resources and crop productivity under climate change.

The simulation system Climate-soil-harvest (CSH) was developed in co-authorship with O.D. Sirotenko and E.V. Abashina. The simulation system includes the following components:

• software implementation of the dynamic model of agroecosystem productivity “Weather-Harvest”;
• a database including
  • hydrometeorological information for more than a century,
  • data of climate change scenarios,
  • data on physical and chemical properties of soil,
  • agroclimatic parameters (phenological dates, soil moisture reserves, etc.); programs for “sweeping” and/or detailing future climate scenarios;
• means for visualization of input data and simulation results.

The dynamic model “Weather-Harvest” includes three interrelated submodels:

1. plant growth and development,
2. soil moisture reserves,
3. mineral nutrition.

Calculations of phytomass dynamics of individual plant organs as a result of modeling the processes of photosynthesis, respiration, growth, decay, development and aging, soil moisture reserves as a result of modeling the processes of infiltration, evaporation, transpiration and root absorption of water and mineral nitrogen of soil are performed with a daily time step. The submodel of plant growth and development includes a parameterized block to account for direct impact of CO₂ and tropospheric ozone on plants.

A stochastic model for generating time series of daily data based on their monthly averages, taking into account auto- and cross-correlation relationships between them, is developed and implemented. The annual course of meteorological variables is approximated by a trigonometric polynomial. The procedure for recognizing days with precipitation is based on the likelihood ratio.

The climatically determined yield and bioclimatic potential are calculated in the CSH system. The system of monitoring of trends, variability and extremes of agroclimatic indicators of heat and moisture availability and grain productivity by subjects in the agricultural zone of Russia since 1976 has been developed.

The methodology for assessing trends in changes in grain yields caused by climate change over the last decades in the main grain-producing regions of Russia and neighboring countries has been developed on the basis of CSH. It makes it possible to substantiate the effectiveness of adaptation to observed climatic changes for the first time with the detailing to the district level of consideration. Scientific support of the process of adaptation to climate change allows agricultural producers to manage climate risks and utilize new opportunities associated with climate change.

 The seminar also will be held in the form of a webinar on the Zoom platform.

Topic: семинар "Математическое моделирование геофизических процессов: прямые и обратные задачи".

Time: Apr 03, 2025 05:15 PM Moscow (GMT+3)

Join Zoom Meeting

Meeting ID: 818 5322 8869

Passcode: 210079

Video recordings of the seminar are available on our youtube channel.

For communication on all issues related to the work of the seminar, please contact the academic secretary Yuliya Yarynich at julia.yarinich@srcc.msu.ru