172nd meeting of the seminar
«Mathematical modeling of geophysical processes: direct and inverse problems»
The seminar is devoted to the consideration of various aspects of mathematical modeling of physical processes in the atmosphere, hydrosphere and active layer of land, associated with solving problems arising in the study of the problems of climate change and the natural environment.
Seminar Organizing Committee
| Leaders: |
Doctor of Physics and Mathematics A.V. Glazunov (Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics of RAS) Doctor of Physics and Mathematics I.A. Repina (A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of RA) Doctor of Physics and Mathematics V.M. Stepanenko (RCC MSU, Geographical Faculty of Moscow State University) |
| Secretary: |
A.V. Debolsky (RCC MSU, A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics of RAS). |
PROGRAM
17:15
| M.E. Gasanov | Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology |
| A.Yu. Petrovskaya | Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology |
| S.A. Matveev | MSU |
| I.V. Oseledets | Skolkovo Institute of Science and Technology; AIRI |
Crop yield modeling using agrosystem simulation models.
The paper deals with issues related to modeling of crop yields using simulation models of crop yields. The current state of simulation models and software packages for modeling of agrosystems are reviewed. On the example of MONICA model the structure of such models is considered, as well as the description of their operation and the required data for running simulations. The sources of weather and soil data are considered separately. For the MONICA model, an experiment to analyze the sensitivity of the model to soil conditions for chernozem soils is considered. First-, second-, and general-order Sobol indices are calculated for soil horizons to assess the importance of soil parameters. A comparison of indices for three crops within a five-year crop rotation is presented separately. The necessity of conducting a significant number of model simulations to obtain reliable values of Sobol indices is shown. Supercomputer calculations were used to carry out the simulations, which allowed reducing the computation time by about 30 times.
The problem of multicriteria optimization of crop irrigation scenarios using the WOFOST model is considered. It is shown that it is possible to search for irrigation conditions within the season boundaries, in particular, irrigation dates and irrigation volume. Maximization of crop yield and minimization of water losses to lower soil horizons were considered as target functions.
Separately, the report considers the approach to satellite data assimilation for optimization of simulation model parameters.
The use of satellite data has improved the spatial resolution of model predictions of crop yields, which are limited by the resolution of weather and soil data. The report also presents some results of ensemble of MONICA, DSSAT and WOFOST simulation models to improve the quality of winter wheat yield forecasts.
The seminar also will be held in the form of a webinar on the Zoom platform.
Topic: семинар "Математическое моделирование геофизических процессов: прямые и обратные задачи".
Time: Nov 248, 2024 05:15 PM Moscow (GMT+3)
Meeting ID: 833 5679 8239
Passcode: 591763
Video recordings of the seminar are available on our youtube channel.
For communication on all issues related to the work of the seminar, please contact the academic secretary Andrey Vladimirovich Debolsky at and.debol@srcc.msu.ru